Intelligent networking of forecasting, planning and optimization for the design of sustainable transport chains.
The aim of the BMVIT-funded research project within the „Mobility of the Future“ funding program is to increase the planning security of vehicle logisticians in order to achieve greater use of sustainable means of transport and a reduction in energy consumption. This should be made possible by the intelligent connection of forecasting, planning and optimization, and demonstrated in the case study of an automobile distribution. Under the leadership of Fraunhofer Austria Research GmbH, RISC Software GmbH, together with the company partner Hödlmayr International AG, is developing an information system which logistics specialists can plan and implement reliable and sustainable transports with. Therefore, it is necessary to extend or to clarify the planning horizon in order to react quickly to a changing and fluctuating order situation. In the area of freight transport, there are currently major deviations between the contract customers‘ orders and the actual retrieval of transport capacities.
This trend of greater volatility of transport volumes is growing further due to stronger economic fluctuations. Logistics providers are increasingly confronted with a lower degree of planning certainty which cannot be sufficiently represented by existing systems. The resulting short-term reaction of the disposition to unforeseeable fluctuations in demand causes ecological and economic inefficiencies, which can be measured by CO2 emissions, costs or the number of empty runs.
In the IPPO research project, various methods for predictive transport planning are investigated, since mathematical forecasting algorithms in supply chain planning are more likely to predict capacity quantities and thus identify capacity bottlenecks or excesses. A forecast model is to thereby be developed with the customer’s existing target figures, which specifies the resource requirements and issues options for the optimal and ecologically sustainable capacity utilization of the means of transport.
Based on the results of the capacity plan, evaluated action alternatives are derived. On the one hand, transports become more efficient by reducing the number of load and empty kilometers and, on the other hand, the possibilities for the use of inland waterways and/or railways are pointed out if the transport volumes are sufficiently large. The developed methods are illustrated in an interconnected manner. This allows the evaluation of the results from the Automobile Distribution case study and the determination of the economic and ecological surplus value of
prognosis-based transport planning.
Bild: (c) Hödlmayr